Below is a list that was written in September, 2019. What I wrote was pretty harsh, so I apologize ahead of time for that. While I still agree with most of this, I could have found a more friendly way to get my points across.
This lists specifically refers to discretionary trading and comes from my many years of experience talking with and educating traders. My sets on TokenSets are a direct response to these thoughts as my goal is to give traders an automated solution to trading that will add alpha to their portfolio.
Here are just a list of unorganized thoughts on trading I have. Many of my thoughts have changed significantly over the years, and some even just this year. In no specific order.
- Most traders will never get it, by most I mean almost all. This isn’t really an opinion, it’s just a fact. I have been hanging around trading forums since I started trading and if anything has proven true, almost no one figures out how to achieve positive expectancy with their trading regime.
- There is way more than 1 way to achieve positive expectancy in trading. I get tired of hearing how there is only this 1 way (usually spoken by someone trying to sell something). Of course personally I will always cheer lead how I trade, but it is by no means the only way.
- Posting chart setups is meaningless. There are dozens of variables that go into a trade. If I post a chart, and even fill it with all sort of goodies like entries, stops, exits, lines, zones, pivots, etc. It is still useless to everyone else. You can’t capture all of those variables in a chart with some lines and words, and even if you could you would make narrow the use of that chart to such a small degree it wouldn’t be useful for anyone anyways.
- Teaching people how to trade is pointless. If you have the aptitude and work ethic you will figure it out. Billions of hours have been wasted by trying to teach people how to trade. Billions more will be wasted and I am not partaking in that time sink anymore.
- Indicators are USELESS. This is a little tongue it cheek. Almost all indicators are useless. Some indicators can provide small hints but you can’t build an entire trading method with long term positive expectancy on an indicator. A few traders have figured this out, most haven’t. I’d rather just not mess with them at all. Whatever negligible improvement one may offer is not worth the extra time and hassle.
- Traders with trading regimes that have positive expectancy’s have long strings of losses. This is another reason why I dislike people posting chart analysis. Not because of the poster but because of all of the other people who will either destroy that poster if the setup fails or lift them up as savants if the trade succeeds. The only way to explain it is ego, because, and I hate to have to say this because it is a pre-school level statement, but long term expectancy doesn’t hinge on a single trade. I may make dozens of trades in a month, hundreds in a year and will make tens of thousands during my entire life. Why are we putting so much emphasis on a single setup? Yep that’s right, it’s all ego. Hater’s want to be right, the poster wants to be right, the posters followers want to be right, and that all astronomically inflates the importance of that 1 trade.
- Then why do I still post setups from time to time? Because 1) it gives me a chance to be sarcastic and 2) shows that there are ways to analyze charts to identify greater than random prediction. Couple that with rock solid trade and money management and you just might get positive expectancy. Am I trying to teach you how to trade? No, and if you ask me I might respond in a not very kind manner. I have far better things to do with my time than to try to teach something that isn’t teachable. Put in the sweat equity, hope you have the aptitude and you will find out for yourself in due time if you can trade with long term sustainability.
- If you have a positive expectancy then why are you on a trading forum and not a billionaire on your own private island. Dumb statements often spoken that don’t even deserve the time of day for a response. Always coming from someone who can’t figure out how to trade with positive expectancy and has become jaded with the entire thing.